#257
Ever wonder why some EHS disasters feel like they were scripted by overconfident rookies? Meet the Dunning-Kruger effect—where folks with just a smidge of know-how strut around like experts, putting safety and progress in the crosshairs. In manufacturing and operational excellence, this isn’t just a quirky brain glitch—it’s a silent killer. Let’s unpack why it’s so common, look at where it’s gone wrong, and figure out how to turn it around.
Why Dunning-Kruger Loves Manufacturing
Picture this: a machine operator who’s skimmed a safety manual decides they’re ready to tweak a process. They skip the lockout-tagout because “it’s fine, I’ve done this before.” That’s Dunning-Kruger in a nutshell—overconfidence born from not knowing what they don’t know. In industries like manufacturing, where systems are complex and stakes are high, this happens way too often. A little training can make someone feel invincible, even when they’re nowhere near competent.
Then there’s the culture trap. Many plants run on a “don’t rock the boat” vibe. Power distance—think workers scared to question a supervisor—means shaky ideas sail through unchallenged. Tight deadlines and production quotas only juice it up, rewarding “get it done” over “get it right.” And the saddest part? Some folks dig in when they’re wrong. Pride or laziness kicks in, and they’d rather double down than learn. In EHS, where risks shift daily—new chemicals, upgraded gear—that unwillingness to adapt is a ticking bomb.
Where It’s Derailed Progress
Let’s look at some real (and inspired) messes where Dunning-Kruger played a starring role:
- BP Texas City Refinery Explosion (2005)
Operators and managers thought they had an aging refinery under control. Overfilled towers? No biggie—they’d seen worse. Except they hadn’t. Basic training didn’t match the complexity, and a culture of cost-cutting over safety audits let overconfidence run wild. The result? 15 lives lost, 180 injured, and a brutal wake-up call. - The “Safety Guy” Near-Miss
Imagine a junior EHS coordinator at a factory, fresh off a week-long cert course. He’s pumped to “optimize” chemical storage—moves flammable stuff near a heat source because “how hard can it be?” No one questions him; he’s “the safety guy.” Next day, a near-miss fire shuts down the line. Progress stalls, risks spike, and trust takes a hit—all because a little knowledge met zero pushback.
Turning It Around
So how do we stop Dunning-Kruger from tanking EHS and ops excellence? Here’s the playbook:
- Make Questioning Cool: Build a culture where “What don’t we know?” is everyone’s go-to. Safety huddles where anyone can speak up—floor worker or boss—cut through the swagger. Next time someone’s rushing a fix with a cocky grin, ask: “Are we sure—or are we just climbing Mount Stupid?”
- Close the Power Gap: Flatten the hierarchy a bit. Anonymous reporting tools or cross-rank workshops let workers call out bad moves without fear. If a newbie can challenge a supervisor’s risky plan, you’re winning.
- Force the Learning Habit: Kill “I know enough” dead. Roll out hands-on EHS training that never stops—tie it to real hazards, not just slideshows. Make it clear: learning’s not optional, it’s how we survive.
- Catch the Overconfident Early: Use drills—hazard recognition, skills tests—to spot folks who think they’re pros but aren’t. Pair them with grizzled mentors who’ve seen the trenches. Feedback’s gotta sting a little but build them up.
- Reward the Right Stuff: Praise the ones who say, “I need help” or “Let’s double-check,” not just the loudest “I’ve got this” voices. Tie bonuses to safety wins and solid processes, not just output numbers.
The Takeaway
The Dunning-Kruger effect isn’t just a fun psych fact—it’s a real threat in EHS and manufacturing. When low-skill confidence meets a culture that doesn’t push back, risks pile up and progress craters. But it’s fixable. Start asking the hard questions, keep learning, and reward humility over bravado. Because in this game, overconfidence doesn’t just bruise egos—it breaks lives. What’s your next step to keep it out of your shop?
Karthik
16/3/25 1130am.
Health, Environment, Safety, Sustainability (HESS) 